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Brazil: State Energy Planner Projects Massive Potential for Behind-the-Meter BESS
Brazil's energy market reveals significant potential for behind-the-meter battery storage. EPE projects a multi-billion euro investment market, driven by distributed solar growth and declining battery costs. By 2036, the storage demand for surplus solar energy could reach 139 GWh, with commercial and industrial applications showing high economic potential.
The Brazilian energy market is on the cusp of a significant transformation, with considerable potential for behind-the-meter (BTM) battery energy storage systems (BESS). Brazil's state-owned energy research agency, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), estimates that the battery storage market linked to local distributed solar could attract investments of up to BRL 417 billion (approximately USD 75.6 billion) by 2036.
This projection is based on the anticipated growth of distributed solar generation, which is expected to reach nearly 92 GW of capacity by 2036. EPE forecasts an average daily solar generation of 330 GWh in that year, with 139 GWh representing surplus energy injected into the grid. This surplus energy forms the basis for the required storage capacity.
The investment estimate considers various battery adoption rates among local solar consumers and unit costs ranging between BRL 500/kWh and BRL 3,000/kWh. Under full adoption, assuming the higher costs, cumulative investment would reach BRL 417 billion. EPE emphasizes that this represents market potential rather than a precise forecast, with actual deployment depending on factors such as declining costs, regulations, and system economics.
For commercial and industrial (C&I) systems in Brazil, EPE references turnkey equipment costs of BRL 1,500/kWh, while for residential installations, BRL 2,750/kWh is cited, excluding installation and grid connection costs. Falling battery prices, broader time-of-use tariffs, and changes to grid injection remuneration under Brazil's distributed generation law (Law 14,300) are expected to drive storage demand.
In its 10-year energy plan (PDE 2036), EPE evaluated various BTM storage applications. Increasing self-consumption in microgeneration and load management for mid-voltage C&I consumers on green tariffs are key use cases. Particularly for C&I consumers, charging batteries during off-peak hours and discharging during expensive peak hours offers the highest economic potential, yielding positive net present values across all evaluated cost bands.
EPE anticipates that solar-plus-storage will carve out specific niches over the coming decade, especially among consumers prioritizing power resilience.
Source: ESS News
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